A decade following the UK entered into a hurried referendum that divided the nation and caused disorder, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly tense and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Intends to Stir Debate
The team have examined the political, financial and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say that moment is imminent, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists play down the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unity has masked the absence of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in academia but hardly any politicians or campaigners are willing to participate even with the essentials. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer endorses unification or the status quo. They writes two pieces that strive for objectivity in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering economic and social data, historical precedents and structural examples.
Arguments encompass flags and symbols, taxes, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they prefer unification but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his generation is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid arguments, he said. "One side will win here and the other side will in the end not succeed but each side has has valuable insights to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Appeal for Broader Discussion
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This involves your state. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
